Monday, November 7, 2011

Game of the Century?

As the LSU kicker lined up to try a chip shot in overtime I was excited. There had been 4 games I had been switching back and forth on: #1 LSU at #2 Alabama. #14 Kansas State @ #3 Oklahoma State. #9 South Carolina @ #7 Arkansas. And of course my #8 Ducks @ Washington. 4 games at once with huge national implications.

Due to the fact right now the NCAA speaks the motto "in the BCS we Trust," I was hoping that Kansas State would knock off Oklahoma State, South Carolina would knock of Arkansas, and of course that my Ducks would take care of business against hated rival Washington. The LSU vs. Alabama game was very hard to gaige in that I wasn't quite sure what outcome would be better from a Duck standpoint. The only Duck loss of the season was to LSU so certaintly the computers and pollsters would think more highly of us if that one loss was to the number 1 ranked team in the country. After much debate (even though I had switched to Alabama in my weekly college top 25 picks contest with my friend Joy), right before 5pm pacific time, I decided to pull for LSU. I thought Alabama had the better offense but LSU winning would benefit my team more.

Speaking of offense. What offense? This game between the number 1 and 2 teams in the country had a total of 5 field goals. But wait, there were numerous more attempts. Alabama was a lowly 2 for 6 kicking. SEC cheerleaders want to name this game an instant classic. Some are saying the game of the century. Really? Did you mean the 1900s? Because I'm pretty sure there was just as much offense as a hundred years ago.

Now I know these defenses are good. They are very good. Several of the defensive players on both teams will play in the NFL. I know this. But even in the SEC where defense is king and offense immulates the NFL in old school power football style, at least most of the time the SEC teams are able to put up at least 1 touchdown. At least 1.

If there weren't so many offensive miscues I would gladly chalk it up to a defensive pitches duel but you can't just ignore 2 for 6 field goals and poor decision making on offense. Just because the D deserves some credit doesn't mean the offenses are good. Even when LSU played Oregon I didn't think LSU's offense was that good. They were good at taking advantage of missed opportunities, turnovers by Oregon, and did what they had to do. When you see the final score of the LSU-Oregon game it's very misleading.

Alabama should have won this game. Anyone else curious as to why such an elite team doesn't have a valid place kicker?

Anyway, as the new BCS standings came out on Sunday night they read as following: 1. LSU 2. Oklahoma State 3. Alabama 4. Stanford 5. Boise State 6. Oklahoma 7. Oregon

I didn't expect Alabama to fall lower than 4 but it was surprising to see them still ahead of a number 4 and undefeated Stanford team. That being said. I do realize that if Stanford were to beat Oregon than Stanford would jump them.

The BCS is getting to the point now that it's a complete mess. Pretty much like every year. Until we have a playoff system it is always going to be a mess. There are too many good teams at the top to be decided by computers. The fact that 1/3 of the equation is taken from the coaches poll to me seems like a conflict of interest but that's just me.

LSU still plays at Arkansas and still has a possible SEC championship game. Oklahoma State plays at Texas Tech this week and later has Oklahoma. Alabama plays Auburn and a possible SEC championship game if Arkansas beats LSU. Stanford plays Oregon and a possible PAC 12 championship game. Boise State plays TCU this weekend but even if they win out their strength of schedule is too soft to get them to the title game and as other teams win harder games they will continue to get leap frogged. Oklahoma plays at Baylor this weekend and later Oklahoma State. Oregon plays at Stanford and a possible PAC 12 Championship game.

The point being this whole thing is up in the air and we have an entire month left.

This is why I am going to go out on a limb here and dub the Oregon @ Stanford game this weekend as the "Game of the 21st Century". LSU @ Alabama? That's the 1900s. Oregon and Stanford much more closely resembles this century. These offenses can move the ball and although they don't play SEC defense they do play defense.

For the haters of the flashy play of Oregon I give you Stanford's power offense. They run double tight sets, sometimes 3 tight ends, with a fullback, and a running back. Their power running plays dare you to stop them. Andrew Luck is the best quarterback in the country but the thing people don't realize is Stanford has a running game that Luck takes advantage of. He is so effective because defenses have to honor the run and get eaten alive when Luck goes play action and they bite.

Oregon's offense is all about speed and mismatches in space. I've noticed no one quite runs the spread like Oregon but that other teams around the country have picked up on certain ideas and used them as well. Other teams are using the playcard boards. The most common theme is a lot of teams are now doing what Oregon does where they get up to the line very fast, read the defense, stop, look over to the sideline for the audible, and then continue.

Oregon is inventive and has so many weapons. LaMichael James is shifty and brilliant at making something out of nothing and a 2 yard gain into a touchdown. Kenjon Barner is just a half step below James and at any other Pac 12 school would start he is that good. Tre Carson comes in with power when he gets a shot. DeAnthony Thomas is just an athlete. Running back, receiver, kick return. He is so fast he makes LaMichael look slow. I've seen him hit a lane in what would be most people's 3rd gear and it's his 2nd gear. He just scores touchdowns. Darron Thomas is the leader of the team and makes plays when he needs to. David Paulson is the most underrated tight end in the country.

There will be 2 keys to this game:
1. Defense
2. Turnovers

For Oregon to win, they must stop the Stanford run and pressure Luck. Andrew Luck has shown the last 2 weeks against USC and Oregon State that if you get pressure on him he is more likely to make poor decisions. Oregon can't afford to let him sit back and pick them apart. Even without Owusu the best Stanford receiver out for the season, they can't give Luck all day to throw.

For Stanford to win, they must attack Oregon's offense. Stanford's linebackers and secondary are big and strong but not very athletic and if Stanford does not hit Oregon at the point of the attack and lets LaMichael, Kenjon, and DeAnthony loose in space then Oregon will have a field day.

Finally, of course is turnovers. Neither team can afford them. These offenses are too good to give them easy field position. I can almost guarentee the team with the least turnovers will win.

In my opinion, Stanford vs. USC was a better game than LSU vs. Alabama. I think this Oregon vs. Stanford game has the potential to be even better. And what people in SEC country fail to realize is this game matters to them. If Stanford wins, due to the fact Oklahoma State is likely to lose at least once, Stanford probably has the inside track to play LSU. If Oregon wins, Stanford drops, but Oregon probably jumps back into the race. It could come down to LSU vs. Alabama/Oregon with it depending on the computers. Both Alabama and Oregon have already lost to LSU. This could get real messy.

Oregon is the race car with missles and weapons built on the side. Stanford is the power SUV with an amazing race car driver. Let the fireworks begin. It's 2011 and I want some offense.

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